NFL playoff projections: Updated win totals, Super Bowl odds for every team
Our power ratings predict each team’s chances of making the playoffs, winning the division, and winning it all.
What are the chances your favorite team makes the NFL playoffs this year? We’ve got the answer for you.
Below you will find season forecasts for every NFL team — including their playoff odds, projected win totals and chances of winning the Super Bowl — which we produced by simulating every game 25,000 times. (You can read our full methodology at the bottom.) We have also included each team’s power rating, which allows you to estimate the margin of victory for specific matchups.
These projections will update every week this season on weekdays, so be sure to check back to see where your team stands.
American Football Conference
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AFC East | NEUTRAL MoV* | AVG. WINS | MAKE PLAYOFFS | WIN DIVISION | TOP SEED | WIN SB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2 Buffalo Bills (10-2) | +9 | 13.9 | 100% | >99% | 62% | 25% |
15 Miami Dolphins (5-7) | +1.5 | 8.1 | 16% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
24 New York Jets (3-9) | -4 | 4.7 | <1% | <1% | 0% | <1% |
28 New England Patriots (3-10) | -6 | 3.6 | <1% | 0% | 0% | <1% |
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AFC North | NEUTRAL MoV* | AVG. WINS | MAKE PLAYOFFS | WIN DIVISION | TOP SEED | WIN SB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
5 Baltimore Ravens (8-5) | +5.5 | 11.0 | 98% | 35% | <1% | 5% |
10 Pittsburgh Steelers (9-3) | +2.5 | 11.5 | 99% | 65% | 3% | 2% |
17 Cincinnati Bengals (4-8) | 0 | 6.9 | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
25 Cleveland Browns (3-8) | -4 | 4.6 | <1% | <1% | 0% | <1% |
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AFC South | NEUTRAL MoV* | AVG. WINS | MAKE PLAYOFFS | WIN DIVISION | TOP SEED | WIN SB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
18 Houston Texans (8-5) | -0.5 | 9.8 | 94% | 93% | <1% | <1% |
23 Indianapolis Colts (6-7) | -2.5 | 8.4 | 26% | 7% | <1% | <1% |
29 Tennessee Titans (3-9) | -6.5 | 5.1 | <1% | <1% | 0% | <1% |
31 Jacksonville Jaguars (2-10) | -8.5 | 3.9 | <1% | <1% | 0% | <1% |
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AFC West | NEUTRAL MoV* | AVG. WINS | MAKE PLAYOFFS | WIN DIVISION | TOP SEED | WIN SB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
6 Kansas City Chiefs (11-1) | +3.5 | 13.9 | 100% | 93% | 35% | 6% |
8 Los Angeles Chargers (8-4) | +3 | 11.1 | 94% | 6% | <1% | 2% |
11 Denver Broncos (7-5) | +2.5 | 9.9 | 72% | <1% | <1% | 1% |
27 Las Vegas Raiders (2-10) | -6 | 3.8 | <1% | 0% | 0% | <1% |
*Neutral MoV is a team’s predicted margin of victory against an average opponent on a neutral field.
National Football Conference
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NFC East | NEUTRAL MoV* | AVG. WINS | MAKE PLAYOFFS | WIN DIVISION | TOP SEED | WIN SB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
3 Philadelphia Eagles (10-2) | +8.5 | 14.3 | >99% | >99% | 31% | 17% |
13 Washington Commanders (8-5) | +1.5 | 10.2 | 78% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
30 Dallas Cowboys (5-7) | -7 | 6.3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
32 New York Giants (2-10) | -9.5 | 2.9 | <1% | 0% | 0% | <1% |
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NFC North | NEUTRAL MoV* | AVG. WINS | MAKE PLAYOFFS | WIN DIVISION | TOP SEED | WIN SB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 Detroit Lions (11-1) | +10.5 | 14.7 | >99% | 92% | 66% | 30% |
4 Green Bay Packers (9-3) | +7 | 12.2 | 99% | 2% | <1% | 6% |
7 Minnesota Vikings (10-2) | +3.5 | 12.6 | >99% | 6% | 3% | 2% |
22 Chicago Bears (4-8) | -2 | 5.4 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
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NFC South | NEUTRAL MoV* | AVG. WINS | MAKE PLAYOFFS | WIN DIVISION | TOP SEED | WIN SB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
14 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-6) | +1.5 | 9.4 | 63% | 52% | <1% | <1% |
20 Atlanta Falcons (6-6) | -1 | 8.8 | 52% | 48% | <1% | <1% |
21 New Orleans Saints (4-8) | -2 | 6.3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
26 Carolina Panthers (3-9) | -6 | 4.4 | <1% | <1% | 0% | <1% |
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NFC West | NEUTRAL MoV* | AVG. WINS | MAKE PLAYOFFS | WIN DIVISION | TOP SEED | WIN SB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
9 Arizona Cardinals (6-6) | +3 | 9.4 | 44% | 42% | <1% | <1% |
12 Seattle Seahawks (7-5) | +2.5 | 9.5 | 44% | 40% | <1% | <1% |
16 Los Angeles Rams (6-6) | +0.5 | 8.3 | 18% | 17% | <1% | <1% |
19 San Francisco 49ers (5-7) | -0.5 | 7.0 | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
*Neutral MoV is a team’s predicted margin of victory against an average opponent on a neutral field.
About this story
The teams’ power rating measures are based on point differential and strength of schedule, adjusted for league-average performance. The ratings are expressed in points per game, with higher values indicating stronger teams. To get an estimated point spread between two teams, subtract the lower team’s power rating from the higher team’s and add 1½ points for home-field advantage. To determine the chances each team has to win the division and make the playoffs, we simulated every regular season game 25,000 times using these power ratings, with recent performance weighted more heavily. Illustrations by Michael Domine.