Tropical Storm Sara, a disorganized mass of rain and thunderstorms, was slowly meandering along the northern coast of Honduras on Friday morning, after making landfall near the Honduras-Nicaragua border late Thursday.
By Ben Noll
As a result, tropical storm warnings are in place for Honduras, Guatemala and Belize.
It’s unlikely the storm will be a major problem for the United States in the coming days, but there are reasons to keep a close eye on the storm’s path.
What to know about the storm’s impact on Central America
Heavy rains and the potential for life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides remain the most likely weather hazard from Sara. The storm was packing maximum sustained winds of 50 mph on Friday morning.
In northern Honduras, 10 to 20 inches of rain are forecast, with localized amounts possibly reaching 30 inches. The corridor from La Ceiba to San Pedro Sula, Honduras, looks to be the focus of Sara’s soaking rainfall.
The map below highlights areas forecast to receive at least 5 inches of rain from the storm — the zone expected to experience the biggest impact.
Where still the storm go next?
On Sunday, the storm is likely to push into Belize before dragging its dense moisture plume into eastern Mexico on Monday.
The system’s prolonged interaction with land means it will probably weaken into a tropical depression or fizzle out entirely by early next week.
However, there are a few reasons that the southern United States should keep an eye on Sara’s track.
What to know about potential U.S. impact?
By late Monday or early Tuesday, the remnant disturbance is forecast to emerge into the southern Gulf of Mexico.
A separate disturbance in the central United States and a high-pressure system centered over Cuba are forecast to guide what’s left of Sara to the north or northeast — toward the Gulf of Mexico.
This may result in tropical downpours and thunderstorms for Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia and Florida from Wednesday through Thursday. This could cause some localized flooding or accumulation of water on low-lying roadways, but probably not widespread issues.
Will the storm’s track or intensity change at the last minute?
Although the Gulf of Mexico remains warm enough to fuel Sara’s re-intensification, this scenario looks unlikely as of early Friday.
However, the interaction between the disturbance from the central United States and what’s left of Sara could still invigorate the system and its resulting rainfall.
Residents of the U.S. Gulf Coast should keep an eye on the developing situation over the weekend. A marine heat wave continues to affect coastal waters and could charge up the storm’s downpours.
What’s next after Sara?
The National Hurricane Center does not expect additional tropical development over the next week, through Nov. 22. The season officially ends on Nov. 30.
There are signs that conditions will become more hostile toward tropical development over the coming weeks, as large-scale atmospheric patterns impart stronger winds, reducing the chance for hurricane formation.
