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For two years, nations have worked to come up with <a href="https://www.unep.org/inc-plastic-pollution">a global agreement</a> to tackle plastic pollution — a <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2023/03/08/ocean-plastics-pollution-study/">staggering problem</a> with widespread implications for the planet and human health.

The agreement aims to “end plastic pollution” with measures that not only would improve how the world handles plastic waste but also could reduce how much of the ubiquitous material is made.

But as delegates from 175 nations gather in Busan, South Korea, this week for the final round of formal talks, negotiators still appear to be largely split on key provisions, prompting uncertainty over whether an agreement will be struck ahead of an end-of-year deadline.

“A treaty like this is a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity,” said John Hocevar, Greenpeace’s oceans campaign director. “Just a few years ago, it was hard to imagine that the whole world would be sitting down to talk about how to end plastic pollution. I’m hoping that we can hold on to enough of that spirit that we can get something done that’s really going to matter.”

Upward of <a href="https://www.iucn.org/resources/issues-brief/plastic-pollution">460 million metric tons of plastic</a> is produced every year, equivalent to the weight of more than 300,000 blue whales, according to the U.N. Environment Program. The United States <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2021/12/01/plastic-waste-ocean-us/">ranks as the world’s leading contributor</a> of plastic waste, generating about 130 kilograms, or roughly 287 pounds, of plastic per person each year, according to a <a href="https://nap.nationalacademies.org/read/26132/chapter/1">2021 study</a> from the National Academy of Sciences. In 2016, the United States produced 42 million metric tons of plastic waste — almost twice as much as China and more than the European Union, the study found.

The vast majority of plastics are made from fossil fuels, a process that can spew toxic and planet-warming gases. Globally, producing primary plastics generated about 2.24 metric gigatons of emissions in 2019, equivalent to more than 500 million gas-powered cars being driven for a year, according to a <a href="https://energyanalysis.lbl.gov/publications/climate-impact-primary-plastic" target=_blank>paper published in April</a> from researchers at the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory.

Many of the plastics that become waste are single-use products that can end up polluting land, waterways and oceans, and some can take hundreds of years to break down. But as the material degrades in the environment, it creates <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/interactive/2024/microplastics-air-human-body-organs-spread/">microplastics </a>— tiny particles <a href="https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/microplastics.html">smaller than five millimeters</a> that have been found everywhere from <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2022/06/09/microplastics-antarctic-snow-study-first/?itid=lk_inline_manual_3&amp;itid=lk_inline_manual_12">Antarctic snow</a> to <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/youre-literally-eating-microplastics-how-you-can-cut-down-exposure-to-them/2019/10/04/22ebdfb6-e17a-11e9-8dc8-498eabc129a0_story.html?itid=lk_inline_manual_3&amp;itid=lk_inline_manual_12">human bodies</a>.

The exact health effects of microplastics still aren’t known, but concerns are rising because plastics are known to contain a variety of toxic chemicals, and because a growing body of research suggests that humans are <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/interactive/2024/microplastics-air-human-body-organs-spread/">breathing, eating and drinking</a> these small particles in much larger quantities than previously thought.

In March 2022, nations <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-solutions/2022/03/02/un-adopts-historic-resolution-aimed-ending-plastic-pollution/">agreed to start working on a legally binding treaty</a> that would address all phases of the plastic life cycle — from design and production to waste management. Supporters say it could be the most important environmental accord in years.

The push to create a global treaty “is an incredibly powerful sign about the severity of this crisis,” said Anja Brandon, director of plastics policy at Ocean Conservancy, a nonprofit group.

The agreement could call for altering the design of plastic products to increase the number of times they can be reused or recycled. It could also address improving how the world manages plastic waste and cleans up pollution.

But for the treaty to effectively meet its goal of ending plastic pollution, environmentalists say, it’s critical that it include measures to reduce how much plastic is made. This could be achieved through caps on global production or a ban of single-use plastic. Environmental groups are also advocating for the agreement to address chemicals that are used to make many plastics, citing concerns about toxicity and calling for regulation of the substances.

Industry groups and countries dependent on fossil fuel have pushed back against these kinds of provisions, arguing that the treaty should center more on dealing with plastic waste than on supply.

“We really think an agreement that is focused on accelerating circularity and ending plastic-waste release or plastic waste in the environment is critical,” said Stewart Harris, a spokesperson for the International Council of Chemical Associations, a trade group.

Harris added that while the ICCA “continues to strongly support the plastics agreement,” the group doesn’t believe that provisions on chemicals or restricting plastic production should be included in the treaty.

The treaty’s goals could be met by participating countries taking voluntary actions or adhering to mandatory obligations. Countries that don’t sign on to the agreement could still be held accountable if the treaty includes trade restrictions on plastics.

Four meetings have yielded an unwieldy 73-page draft text with more than 3,000 words or sentences that delegates still disagree on.

Ahead of the final round of talks in Busan, Ecuador’s ambassador, Luis Vayas Valdivieso, who will chair the meeting, released a more streamlined document that could serve as a new basis for the negotiations.

The document provides a potential structure for the treaty and includes language about the design of plastic products, waste management and cleanup. It also suggests that participating countries could agree to “take measures to manage, reduce, and where possible, eliminate emissions and releases” to the environment from plastic production and of small plastic pieces, including microplastics.

The text calls on each country to develop a national plan that would “describe the measures it intends to take to implement its obligations.”

While some experts say the shorter draft text could be seen as a positive signal that delegates are intent on reaching an agreement by the end of the Busan talks, a number of environmental groups have expressed disappointment over its contents.

“We are concerned that there is a pretty significant step backward in terms of the ambition outlined,” Brandon said, adding, “We can support it provided that countries are willing to increase the ambition of the document.”

The new draft recommends more voluntary agreements from participating countries rather than binding obligations. The document is also missing specific suggested language for key provisions, including essential measures addressing plastic production, toxic chemicals used to make plastics and financing for the treaty and its commitments. Valdivieso noted in the document that the absence of suggested text indicates a lack of widespread agreement.

“It’s definitely still very unclear where we’re going to land because there is a very small but loud group of countries that are advocating very strongly for not including production at all and not including chemicals of concern at all in this treaty,” said Rachel Radvany, an environmental health campaigner for the Center for International Environmental Law.

In a shift, U.S. officials <a href="https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/shift-us-backs-global-target-reduce-plastic-production-source-says-2024-08-14/">said in August</a> that they would back a global target for reducing plastic production. The change came about a month after the Biden administration <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-solutions/2024/07/19/single-use-plastic-pollution-biden/">announced a commitment</a> to phase out single-use plastics across the federal government as part of an expanded strategy to combat plastic pollution in the United States.

But ahead of the talks in Busan, U.S. negotiators said they would not support mandatory production caps, leading some environmental groups to <a href="https://grist.org/regulation/us-backtracks-production-caps-global-plastics-treaty-united-nations/">accuse them of backtracking</a>.

Brenda Mallory, chair of the White House Council on Environmental Quality, said that the U.S. negotiating position has not changed since August and that the debate over the word “caps” is a matter of semantics.

“People have gotten a little caught up on what words are being used. We did not commit to … a hard-and-fast cap,” Mallory said in a recent interview on the sidelines of the <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2024/11/18/azerbaijan-cop29-oil-gas/">U.N. Climate Change Conference</a> in Baku, Azerbaijan.

“What we have said very clearly is that the scope of the plastics issue is one that really requires us to look at the full life cycle,” she added. “And so the idea that we could be focused only on waste is not going to solve the problem.”

But while U.S. negotiators have been criticized for not being ambitious enough and are facing pressure to support more-aggressive measures, some environmentalists say the country’s shift to broadly back reductions in plastic production is significant. Less than a week before the Busan negotiations, the Environmental Protection Agency <a href="https://www.epa.gov/newsreleases/biden-harris-administration-announces-national-strategy-prevent-plastic-pollution">released the final text</a> of its national strategy to prevent plastic pollution, which includes actions such as reducing the production and consumption of single-use plastics and measuring the environmental and human health impacts throughout their life cycle.

“We’re at a point where production itself is still a very controversial issue, so the U.S. continuing to support measures … adds weight to the side of the countries that do want to keep it on the table,” Radvany said.

The U.S. position on plastic production is opposed by industry groups, such as the International Council of Chemical Associations.

“We don’t support that U.S. shift in position — we do have concerns with it,” Harris said. Instead, he said, the ICCA is in favor of demand-side measures, including those to improve plastics recycling.

“Plastic touches the majority of U.S. manufacturing, and so calling to restrict the availability of that material really sends a very chilling signal through the U.S. manufacturing industry,” he said.

“That’s the million-dollar question,” said Hocevar, of Greenpeace.

He and other experts raised concerns about countries rushing just to have a finished text by the end-of-year deadline.

“Obviously, there’s real urgency here,” Hocevar said. “It’s more important to get the treaty right than to get it done, and I’m hearing from governments that they are willing to extend negotiations if it doesn’t seem like the agreement that they could get in Busan is a meaningful one.”

But even if the talks yield a treaty, the process won’t end in Busan. There will be additional meetings to refine and finalize the agreement’s provisions before it’s implemented.

Maxine Joselow in Baku contributed to this report.

Northwestern University, Bachelor of Science in Journalism

Allyson Chiu is a reporter focusing on climate solutions for The Washington Post. She previously covered wellness and worked overnight on The Post's Morning Mix team.

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