Don’t dust off your snow shovels and sleds just yet. If this winter’s forecast proves accurate, most of the country can expect less snow this season than usual, continuing a decades-long trend of increasingly meager snowfall.
Winter snowfall forecast
Compared to 1993-2016 average
Hover for state forecast
Note: Winter includes December, January and February. Hawaii and unshaded areas omitted because they experience less than three inches of annual snowfall. State averages do not include areas with insufficient snowfall data.
Seasonal forecasting has come a long way since the days when people tried to foretell the severity of the coming winter by examining the color of caterpillars or the abundance of acorns. The forecast shown above is a blend of seasonal climate models from the United States, Britain, France, Germany, Italy, Japan and Canada — a “wisdom of the crowds” technique that yields more accurate seasonal forecasts.
Although the accuracy of this forecast has not been statistically assessed, it has performed well in recent years, particularly in the East — excluding the winter of 2020-2021, when a wobbly polar vortex unleashed more snow than was predicted. Even the most powerful supercomputer cannot anticipate a surprise nor’easter or an unseasonable warm spell months in advance, but seasonal forecasts tend to perform better when they can be traced to climatic conditions that are known to influence seasonal weather patterns.
This winter, two strong climate drivers churning in the Pacific Ocean give more confidence to the low-snowfall forecast.
A graphic explaining how La Nina, a marine heat wave, and the jet stream influence the snowfall forecast
Forecasts for December, January and February
compared with 1993-2016 average
Since summer, the Pacific Ocean has been shifting from an El Niño phase, characterized by warmer than average water near the equator, to a La Niña phase, when the water near the equator cools. This natural oscillation influences weather patterns across the planet.
At the same time, the forecast is also accounting for an ongoing marine heat wave off the eastern coast of Japan. Marine heat waves are expected to become more severe and frequent in a warming world.
During La Niña phases, cooler ocean water tends to weaken the southern branch of the jet stream, reducing the moisture available for storms tracking across the southern United States.
The La Niña-like pattern should also strengthen the northern branch of the jet stream, which will be further enhanced by the marine heat wave.
If you noticed that the projected snowfall patterns don’t exactly match the jet stream, good eye. Although the weak southern jet only tracks across the southern U.S., it can cause milder air to flow north, reducing snowfall in the upper half of the country.
Meanwhile, the stronger northern branch of the jet stream has the potential to deliver snow storms to Canada, Alaska, and the northern tier of the United States.
Forecasts for December, January and February
compared with 1993-2016 average
Since summer, the Pacific Ocean has been
shifting from an El Niño phase, characterized by warmer than average water near the equator, to a La Niña phase, when the water near the equator cools. This natural oscillation influences weather patterns across the planet.
At the same time, the forecast is also accounting for an ongoing marine heat wave off the eastern coast of Japan. Marine heat waves are expected to become more severe and frequent in a warming world.
During La Niña phases, cooler ocean water tends to weaken the southern branch of the jet stream, reducing the moisture available for storms tracking across the southern United States.
The La Niña-like pattern should also strengthen the northern branch of the jet stream, which will be further enhanced by the marine heat wave.
If you noticed that the projected snowfall patterns don’t exactly match the jet stream, good eye. Although the weak southern jet only tracks across the southern U.S., it can cause milder air to flow north, reducing snowfall in the upper half of the country.
Meanwhile, the stronger northern branch of the jet stream has the potential to deliver snow storms to Canada, Alaska, and the northern tier of the United States.
Forecasts for December, January and February
compared with 1993-2016 average
Since summer, the Pacific Ocean has been shifting from an El Niño phase,
characterized by warmer than average water near the equator, to a La Niña
phase, when the water near the equator cools. This natural oscillation
influences weather patterns across the planet.
At the same time, the forecast is also accounting for an ongoing marine heat
wave off the eastern coast of Japan. Marine heat waves are expected to become
more severe and frequent in a warming world.
During La Niña phases, cooler ocean water tends to weaken the southern branch
of the jet stream, reducing the moisture available for storms tracking across the
southern United States.
The La Niña-like pattern should also strengthen the northern branch of the jet
stream, which will be further enhanced by the marine heat wave.
If you noticed that the projected snowfall patterns don’t exactly match the jet
stream, good eye. Although the weak southern jet only tracks across the
southern U.S., it can cause milder air to flow north, reducing snowfall in the
upper half of the country.
Meanwhile, the stronger northern branch of the jet stream has the potential to
deliver snow storms to Canada, Alaska, and the northern tier of the United
States.
Forecasts for December, January and February
compared with 1993-2016 average
Since summer, the Pacific Ocean has been shifting from an El Niño phase, characterized by warmer than average water near the equator, to a La Niña phase, when the water near the equator cools. This natural oscillation influences weather patterns across the planet.
At the same time, the forecast is also accounting for an ongoing marine heat wave off the eastern coast of Japan. Marine heat waves are expected to become more severe and frequent in a warming world.
During La Niña phases, cooler ocean water tends to weaken the southern branch of the jet stream, reducing the moisture available for storms tracking across the southern United States.
The La Niña-like pattern should also strengthen the northern branch of the jet stream, which will be further enhanced by the marine heat wave.
If you noticed that the projected snowfall patterns don’t exactly match the jet stream, good eye. Although the weak southern jet only tracks across the southern U.S., it can cause milder air to flow north, reducing snowfall in the upper half of the country.
Meanwhile, the stronger northern branch of the jet stream has the potential to deliver snow storms to Canada, Alaska, and the northern tier of the United States.
Forecasts for December, January and February
compared with 1993-2016 average
Since summer, the Pacific Ocean has been
shifting from an El Niño phase, characterized
by warmer than average water near the
equator, to a La Niña phase, when the water
near the equator cools. This natural oscillation
influences weather patterns across the planet.
At the same time, the forecast is also
accounting for an ongoing marine heat wave
off the eastern coast of Japan. Marine heat
waves are expected to become more severe
and frequent in a warming world.
During La Niña phases, cooler ocean water
tends to weaken the southern branch of the jet
stream, reducing the moisture available for
storms tracking across the southern United
States.
The La Niña-like pattern should also
strengthen the northern branch of the jet
stream, which will be further enhanced by the
marine heat wave.
If you noticed that the projected snowfall
patterns don’t exactly match the jet stream,
good eye. Although the weak southern jet only
tracks across the southern U.S., it can cause
milder air to flow north, reducing snowfall in
the upper half of the country.
Meanwhile, the stronger northern branch of
the jet stream has the potential to deliver snow
storms to Canada, Alaska, and the northern
tier of the United States.
Another factor that boosts confidence in this year’s winter forecast is that it aligns with the long-term downward trend in snowfall across the country.
For Joseph Gordon, 83, a snowless season will further confirm his sense that the winters of his memory have been irretrievably lost. Four decades ago, Gordon moved to McLean, Virginia, where he raised his family. He remembers snowy days when he would pile his kids into a 10-foot toboggan or cross-country ski through acres of farmland where rows of houses now stand.
Gordon has not consulted a meteorological database, but his experience tells him McLean gets less snow than it used to. According to our analysis of 60 years of snowfall data, he’s right. “It’s so gradual,” Gordon said of the change in snowfall. “We’re like frogs in a pot of boiling water, and we don’t jump out until it’s too late.”
With the exception of part of the Northeast and a few patches elsewhere, the snowfall trend across the country has matched Northern Virginia’s, with less snow in the most recent three decades than in the three decades before that.
Change in annual snowfall
1964-1993 vs. 1994-2023
Hover for state averages
Annual inches of snow
Insufficient data
Note: Hawaii and unshaded areas omitted because they experience less than three inches of annual snowfall. State averages do not include areas with insufficient snowfall data.
Over the past 60 years, as humans have added more than 2.3 trillion tons of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere, the average global temperature has increased by about 2.1 degrees Fahrenheit (1.2 degrees Celsius). The warming has contributed to less snow in the United States and elsewhere.
“The laws of thermodynamics are tough to beat,” said Brian Brettschneider, a climatologist who has studied long-term snowfall trends. “As you warm temperatures up, you’re just going to get less snow. There’s just no way around that.”
In Fairbanks, Alaska, where Brettschneider lives, winters have warmed much faster than the rest of the planet. Because warmer air makes more moisture available for precipitation, global warming has led to “a marked increase” in snowfall over Alaska during the coldest months of the year, when Alaska still stays below freezing most of the time, Brettschneider said.
At the same time, global warming has led to fewer freezing days during the fall and spring, squeezing the length of the snow season from both sides. As a result, year-round snowfall has dropped across most of the state. In Fairbanks North Star Borough, annual snowfall fell from 63 inches in the 30 years from 1964 through 1993, to 55 inches in the most recent three decades.
Below, search for your county to see this year’s snowfall forecast, along with the change in snowfall over the past 60 years. For locations in Connecticut, refer to the new planning region names.
Washington, D.C.
Snowfall this winter is forecast to be less than normal
How historical annual snowfall has changed
Washington, D.C., has insufficient snowfall data to calculate a trend.
Note: County snowfall averages were calculated from grid cells roughly 300 square miles in area. As a result, the values shown here may not match what you experience in your backyard. Snowfall forecast compared with 1993-2016 average.
Scientists cannot confidently explain those rare instances where snowfall has increased, but they can offer hypotheses. In northern New England, for instance, warming Atlantic Ocean water could be making winters milder while simultaneously making more moisture available for precipitation. As long as the temperature remained below freezing long enough, the warming could have caused more snowfall.
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Or it could be due to plain old randomness. A few extra storms in the most recent 30-year period compared with the previous one could have brought a temporary uptick in snowfall, even as the overall climate became less favorable for snow in the long term.
Have you noticed long-term trends in snowfall where you live? If so, we would be interested to hear about it. You can email us at harry.stevens@washpost.com or ben.noll@washpost.com.
Check our work
The seasonal forecast snowfall data was downloaded from the Copernicus Climate Data Store. A simple multi-model average from the following contributing members was used in the analysis: ECMWF, U.K. Met Office, Météo-France, DWD, CMCC and ECCC. A three-month average was applied to align with meteorological winter (December 2024 to February 2025). A filter was applied so that only areas that typically receive more than three inches of snow annually are shown.
Historical snowfall data was downloaded from the Climate Data Store. Annual snowfall averages for the two most recent 30-year periods were computed (1993-2024 and 1964-1993), as was the percentage change between the two periods. A conversion from meters to inches was applied, as was a filter to exclude areas that average less than 3 inches of snow per year. Snowfall averages may not be exactly indicative of a single location, given the relative coarseness of this atmospheric reanalysis product, but should be a reasonable areal estimate.
An area-weighted average was used to aggregate the forecast and historical data to the state and county level using shape files from Natural Earth and the U.S. Census Bureau, respectively. The census county boundaries were clipped to the land border of the United States so that water areas were not considered.
The code to create versions of the graphics seen in this article can be found in computational notebooks: the forecast map, the sea surface temperature and jet stream globes, the trend map and the county lookup. If you would like to learn more about the data processing for this article, you may email Harry, Ben or our editor, Monica Ulmanu.
