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Trump Campaign

Odelyn Joseph

President-elect Donald Trump’s oft-stated aversion to military intervention in messy overseas conflicts might be about to meet an early test close to home, in the violence-racked Caribbean nation of Haiti. His desire to avoid a new American military entanglement might conflict with his other professed policy goal of stopping illegal immigration and deporting millions of migrants (both documented and undocumented) already here.

Haiti is a violent mess, the definition of a failed state. A national transitional council, which was supposed to provide some semblance of governmental authority, has been plagued by infighting, culminating in the removal of a respected prime minister after just six months and <a href="https://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/world/americas/haiti/article295370414.html" target=_blank>his replacement by a businessman</a>. And the U.S.-funded <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/09/18/haiti-gangs-kenya-security-united-nations/" target=_blank>Multinational Security Support Mission</a>, led by Kenyan police, has so far proved ineffective. Only one-quarter of the force has been deployed, and these officers <a href="https://www.kenyans.co.ke/news/104050-kenyan-police-haiti-list-late-pay-equipment-and-manpower-shortage-main-issues-facing" target=_blank>lack paychecks and adequate weapons</a>. The Haitian police they went there to train remain outmanned and outgunned.

The armed gangs that have brought Haiti to the brink of collapse continue to hold sway and have lately become more emboldened. Undaunted by the paltry Kenyan-led force, the gangs have continued consolidating their territory and terrorizing innocent civilians. Weapons fired in the vicinity of the country’s main airport damaged several planes and<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/11/10/haiti-prime-minister-garry-conille-fired/" target=_blank> forced the airport to close</a>. The Federal Aviation Administration <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/transportation/2024/11/12/haiti-faa-ban-spirit-airlines/" target=_blank>put the airport off-limits</a> for U.S. carriers. The mayhem might hamper the arrival of desperately needed aid to the civilian population as well as the arrival of additional security forces. The gangs control an estimated 80 percent of the country.

Under the Biden administration, the United States had hoped to keep the conflict at arm’s length, avoiding direct involvement while providing the bulk of funding, <a href="https://apnews.com/article/un-us-haiti-gangs-force-peacekeeping-kenya-bf7406611ef3cfb7a9e88f0b37137428" target="_blank">about $300 million</a>, for the Kenyan-led security mission, which includes a smattering of troops <a href="https://haitiantimes.com/2024/09/13/24-jamaican-and-two-belizean-officers-arrive-in-haiti/" target="_blank">from Jamaica and Belize</a>. Other African and Caribbean nations have pledged support, too, but are unlikely to act without funding and equipment.

The United States had hoped to guarantee the security mission’s longevity by passing it off to the United Nations as an <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/11/15/un-us-haiti-gangs-force-peacekeeping-kenya/4836841c-a3ba-11ef-be87-1106a06524c6_story.html" target="_blank">official U.N. peacekeeping mission</a>. But <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/11/20/un-haiti-gangs-kenya-force-peacekeeping-violence/f28bb8e6-a7c1-11ef-a365-f28068283fb3_story.html" target="_blank">Russia and China balked</a>, leaving the United States to shoulder the funding until October 2025. That money could run out much earlier — next year — unless the new Republican-controlled Congress appropriates the funds.

The security mission almost seemed destined to fail from the start. Even at its peak, the force was planned to number just 2,500 police officers — roughly one-tenth of the estimated number of gang members.

In reality, little can be done in Haiti without more direct and robust American intervention under the <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/05/13/haiti-un-mission-responsibility-to-protect/" target=_blank>“responsibility to protect” principle</a>: that the international community can and should intervene to save civilian populations in failed states. But that’s unlikely under Mr. Trump, who has made <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/11/16/haiti-crisis-trump-administration/" target=_blank>disparaging comments</a> about <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-attacks-protections-for-immigrants-from-shithole-countries-in-oval-office-meeting/2018/01/11/bfc0725c-f711-11e7-91af-31ac729add94_story.html" target=_blank>Haiti and Haitians</a>, and for whom a foreign intervention in a chaotic Caribbean country — even one just 700 miles from his home in Mar-a-Lago — would presumably be unappealing.

Mr. Trump has another stated imperative: stemming the flow of illegal immigration to the United States and deporting millions of migrants who are already here. The Haitians he disparaged in <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/2024/11/07/springfield-ohio-haitian-migrants-trump-win/" target=_blank>Springfield, Ohio</a> — falsely claiming they were stealing and eating pets — are in the United States legally under the Biden administration’s granting of <a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/8/1254a" target=_blank>temporary protected status</a>. Mr. Trump and <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/09/19/trump-vance-immigrants-deportation/" target=_blank>Vice President-elect JD Vance</a> have indicated they would <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2024/10/03/trump-haitian-migrants-deport-00182328" target=_blank>strip away</a> these immigrants’ protected status and subject them <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trump-vows-mass-deportation-migrants-springfield-dismisses-threats/story?id=113661663" target=_blank>to immediate deportation</a>.

So, will Mr. Trump try to deport the <a href="https://cis.org/Camarota/Fact-Sheet-Haitian-Immigrants-United-States" target=_blank>roughly 850,000</a> Haitian immigrants in the United States and stop those fleeing Haiti’s continuing chaos? Doing so would be extremely hard as long as Haiti remains a violent mess, and even trying would upend the American tradition of giving succor to people escaping violence.

Or will Mr. Trump try to deal with the root cause of Haiti’s instability — the criminal gangs — by providing needed funding for the security force and, if necessary, bolstering its ranks with American military equipment and even troops? Some Haitians might be wary of direct American involvement, given the nation’s fraught history with U.S. occupation. But many Haitians are now critical of the foreign security force for not being sufficient to beat back the gangs.

Republican <a href="https://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/world/americas/haiti/article295424989.html" target="_blank">Sen. Marco Rubio</a>, Mr. Trump’s intended nominee for secretary of state, understands the stakes. He hails from Florida, which has one of the country’s largest Haitian immigrant communities, and was active on the Senate’s Western Hemisphere subcommittee. But Mr. Rubio lately seems to have shifted more toward Mr. Trump’s isolationist views. We can only hope that the incoming administration does all it can to help fix Haiti, restore security and return it to a democratic path. A long-term solution for Haiti can be hastened with American engagement and help.

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