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Trump Campaign

Francisco Seco

Global leaders seeking clarity on how President-elect <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/donald-trump/" target="_blank" class="contextual_link">Donald Trump</a> intends to engage with the world have received mixed messages. After running an “America First” campaign, he tapped Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Florida) to be secretary of state and Rep. Michael Waltz (R-Florida) as his national security adviser. Neither is quite a Trumpian isolationist.

All the same, Mr. Trump’s first term showed that he doesn’t always take good advice. On Monday, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2024/11/25/trump-tariffs-china-mexico-canada-percent/" target=_blank>he threatened 25 percent tariffs</a> on Canada and Mexico and an additional 10 percent tariff on China, proposals that would punish the world economy and slam American consumers. The world should prepare for a future with a diminished American global leadership role, more U.S. clashes with allies as well as adversaries over trade issues, heightened unpredictability and a more transactional mode of American policymaking. The goal — of U.S. policymakers around Mr. Trump, Republicans who understand the stakes and foreign leaders seeking to manage their relationship with the United States — needs to be limiting the damage of this realignment.

The shift is likely to be felt most disruptively in Europe. The experience of Mr. Trump’s first term had already spurred European leaders to talk about investing more in their own collective security. Now that Mr. Trump’s brand of neo-isolationism seems a lasting feature of U.S. policy, not a temporary aberration, Europeans would be wise to start contemplating a security alliance less dependent on America at its core.

Many leaders in Europe and NATO had already been discussing ways to achieve “<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/03/08/europe-foreign-policy-vulnerable/" target="_blank">strategic autonomy</a>” — that is, ending their reliance on the United States for security. The majority of NATO’s 32 members have <a href="https://www.cfr.org/expert-brief/nato-countries-reach-spending-milestone-2-percent-enough" target="_blank">significantl</a><a href="https://www.cfr.org/expert-brief/nato-countries-reach-spending-milestone-2-percent-enough" target="_blank">y </a><a href="https://www.cfr.org/expert-brief/nato-countries-reach-spending-milestone-2-percent-enough" target="_blank">increased their defense spending</a> since 2022, so now only a few nations are failing to meet the target of 2 percent of gross domestic product. Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine also brought the threat of a revanchist Russia to NATO’s doorstep. But mostly, the talk of European “security autonomy” has remained just talk. Mr. Trump’s re-ascendance should focus minds and bring a new sense of urgency to building European self-sufficiency and bolstering Ukraine.

Mr. Trump has voiced skepticism about continued U.S. financing for <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/russia-ukraine-attack/" target=_blank>Ukraine’s defensive war </a>against Russia and has pledged to end the conflict swiftly, which most take to mean <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/04/05/trump-ukraine-secret-plan/" target=_blank>granting territorial concessions</a> to Russia. If Mr. Trump stops further assistance to Kyiv, the Europeans would struggle to plug the gap, with their budgets already stretched and their <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/09/12/ukraine-europe-aid-trump/" target=_blank>weapons stockpiles low</a>. In his remaining weeks in office, President Joe Biden should ship as much military hardware as possible to Ukraine.

Outside Europe, tensions with Iran are likely to increase under Mr. Trump, particularly after reports that the Tehran regime hatched a <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2024/11/08/trump-iran-arrested-assassination-attempt/" target=_blank>plot to assassinate</a> the former president. Mr. Trump is said to be considering a <a href="https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/trump-to-renew-maximum-pressure-campaign-against-iran-f0db5fd5?mod=latest_headlines" target=_blank>more aggressive enforcement of sanctions</a> against Iran, aimed particularly at disrupting Iran’s oil sales revenue. Mr. Trump is also likely to place few restraints on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who considers Iran Israel’s principal enemy and Iran’s nuclear program an existential threat. With Iran’s complex web of allies and enemies in the Middle East, such moves could promote regional solidarity, instability or a mix of both.

Confrontation with China is also likely to ratchet up in Mr. Trump’s second term, with the president-elect having proposed during his campaign  tariffs of up to 60 percent on Chinese goods. Mr. Trump might simply be taking a tough stance to strengthen the U.S. position in trade talks. His advisers, U.S. allies and, indeed, China’s leaders themselves should encourage Mr. Trump, to the extent they can, to deal with Beijing, not to wage an economic war that would hurt American consumers and exporters.

At the same time, Taiwan might be questioning America’s commitment to help provide for the island’s defense in the event of an invasion by mainland China. Mr. Trump has accused Taiwan of <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2024/10/28/trump-accuses-taiwan-of-stealing-us-chip-business-on-joe-rogan-podcast.html" target="_blank">“stealing” America’s computer chip industry</a> and threatened to impose tariffs on Taiwan-made chips. Mr. Trump’s China-skeptical advisers should recognize the value of deepening ties to countries in the region seeking to contain Beijing.

Mr. Biden’s stated foreign policy priority of <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/09/10/biden-vietnam-visit-democracy-human-rights/" target=_blank>democracy promotion</a> will also probably be jettisoned by Mr. Trump, who prefers transactional dealings with foreign leaders. Mr. Biden <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/04/06/biden-wants-boost-democracy-around-world-what-about-despots-who-are-us-allies/" target=_blank>vacillated on democracy promotion</a>, too often bowing to broader geopolitical concerns. But even when the United States wavered, it was still seen as a beacon of hope for those fighting for democracy around the world. Voices such as Mr. Rubio’s should try to dissuade Mr. Trump from entirely extinguishing that beacon.

In Mr. Trump’s first term, some world leaders and top advisers did a better job than others at managing him. For the sake of global prosperity, all need to study up quickly.

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The Washington Post Opinions section features opinion articles, op-eds, editorials by the Editorial Board, global opinions and letters to the editor on the issues of the day. Offerings include columns by Washington Post opinion writers, political cartoons by editorial cartoonists Ann Telnaes and Michael de Adder and podcasts by Jonathan Capehart.